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Sunday, March 4, 2012

ECAC Playoff Update

After two games in the first round, only one series is over. Ninth-seeded Dartmouth overcame their home loss to St. Lawrence last weekend to go on the road and sweep the Saints 2-0. Everything else heads to a rubber match tomorrow night. The most dramatic game so far just ended, as Clarkson defeated RPI 4-3 in triple OT to force the decisive game three.


Here are the quarterfinal scenarios depending on who wins tomorrow. My albeit rusty math skills tell me that the number of possible outcomes equals 2^3 or 8, but let me know if I missed one. Harvard's are in bold. The Crimson cannot play fifth seeded Quinnipiac (who will play Colgate if they win), eleventh seeded Princeton (who will play either Union or Cornell if they win, depending on the Brown series) or twelfth seeded Brown (who will play Union if they win)





If Quinnipiac, Yale and Clarkson win.
  1. Union plays 9. Dartmouth
  2. Cornell plays 7. Clarkson
  3. Harvard plays 6. Yale
  4. Colgate plays 5. Quinnipiac

If Quinnipiac, Yale and RPI win
  1. Union plays 10. RPI
  2. Cornell plays 9. Dartmouth
  3. Harvard plays 6. Yale
  4. Colgate plays 5. Quinnipiac
 If Quinnipiac, Princeton and Clarkson win
  1. Union plays 11. Princeton
  2. Cornell plays 9. Dartmouth
  3. Harvard plays 7. Clarkson
  4. Colgate plays 5. Quinnipiac

If Quinnipiac, Princeton and RPI win
  1. Union plays 11. Princeton
  2. Cornell plays 10. RPI
  3. Harvard plays 9. Dartmouth
  4. Colgate plays 5. Quinnipiac

If Brown, Yale and Clarkson win
  1. Union plays 12. Brown
  2. Cornell plays 9. Dartmouth
  3. Harvard plays 7. Clarkson
  4. Colgate plays 6. Yale
 If Brown, Yale and RPI win
  1. Union plays 12. Brown
  2. Cornell plays 10. RPI
  3. Harvard plays 9. Dartmouth
  4. Colgate plays 6. Yale

If Brown, Princeton and Clarkson win
  1. Union plays 12. Brown
  2. Cornell plays 11. Princeton
  3. Harvard plays 9. Dartmouth
  4. Colgate plays 7. Clarkson

If Brown, Princeton and RPI win
  1. Union plays 12. Brown
  2. Cornell plays 11. Princeton
  3. Harvard plays 10. RPI
  4. Colgate plays 9. Dartmouth
Harvard's quarterfinal opponents, in order of likelihood (speaking purely mathematically and assuming the winners could be determined by coin flip): Dartmouth (37.5% chance); Yale and Clarkson (25% chance each); RPI (12.5%).

Union's quarterfinal opponents, same metric as above: Brown (50% chance); Princeton (25% chance); Dartmouth and RPI (12.5% chance each). Cannot face: Quinnipiac, Yale, or Clarkson.

Cornell's quarterfinal opponents, etc.: Dartmouth (37.5% chance); RPI and Princeton (25% chance each); Clarkson (12.5% chance). Cannot face: Quinnipiac, Yale, or Brown.

Colgate's quarterfinal opponents, etc.: Quinnipiac (50% chance); Yale (25% chance); Dartmouth and Clarkson (12.5% chance each.) Cannot face: RPI, Princeton, or Brown.

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