The non-conference games for Ivy League basketball teams are
far from scrimmages. They affect March Madness seeding, they give teams a
chance at an at-large tournament bid, and they can raise the profile of Ivy
League basketball.
But let’s be realistic. Probably, no matter what happens in
non-conference play, the Ivy League champion will be relegated to a low seed.
Probably, there will be no at-large bids. Probably, the Ivy League will forever
remain a second-tier conference.
So the time of year that really matters is now. Starting on
Saturday, January 11, conference play begins. Known as the “14-game tournament”
(a sorry excuse for not having an actual tournament like every single other
conference), every Ivy teams plays every other one twice, starting with
defending champion Harvard tipping off against Dartmouth. Where do the teams
rank heading into Ivy League play?
1. Harvard (13-2)
The Crimson have done exactly what they were expected to do,
beating the teams they’re supposed to beat and losing to the teams they’re
supposed to lose to. You can’t fault them for falling by 8 on the road to #15
Colorado or by 5 on the road to Connecticut. But, they certainly haven’t proven
themselves either, with their only top-100 win coming at a neutral site against
Green Bay. Still, just looking at a highly experienced roster featuring Wesley
Saunders, Siyani Chambers, and Kyle Casey, it’s hard to pick any other squad to
finish first in the Ancient 8.
2. Princeton (11-2)
With only a slightly easier schedule than Harvard, the
Tigers have picked up right where they left off after Ian Hummer’s graduation,
with only two losses to start the season. And those losses are to Butler and
Portland – both top-100 teams (note: we are using Sports Reference’s Simple Rating System,
rather than the less mathematical RPI system). However, their only top-100 win
is by 2 points over Penn State, not exactly a Herculean task. But, T.J. Bray is
a true star who was overshadowed by Hummer last year, and he definitely has
what it takes to lead the Tigers to a surprise Ivy title.
3. Columbia (10-6)
Surprised to see the team that came in dead last in the
preseason poll up at third? Not me. The only surprise was Columbia’s ranking in
the preseason poll, especially after their 78-63 dismantling of Harvard last
year. The Lions played with #5 Michigan State (#1 at the time) right up until
the last minute when the Spartan home crowd fooled the visitors on the shot
clock not once but twice. When you put big men like Alex Rosenberg, Isaac
Cohen, Cory Osetkowski, and Maodo Lo against a diminutive Ivy lineup, expect
the Lions to outrebound everybody and make it look easy.
4. Brown (7-6)
Everyone beyond this point has only a negligible chance of
going to the tournament. The high point of the Bears’ season was a 5-point win
over American – their remaining six wins were against some truly awful teams.
They also fell to Niagra, a team that’s worse than every Ivy squad save for
Cornell. Sean McGonagill is averaging an impressive 19.4 points per game and
Rafael Maia sits at 8.3 rebound per game, so there is a core here that could
make some games close. But they just don’t have the raw talent of the top three
teams on this list.
5. Yale (5-8)
Bulldog hopes were buoyed by the arrival preseason Ivy
freshman of the year Anthony Dallier. And while Dallier may one day emerge as
an Ivy League star, for now he’s averaging just 12.5 minutes per game and 2.7
points per game, not exactly numbers that will improve upon a 14-17 record from
the year before. Justin Sears leads the way as expected, but he’s not going to
do enough to save a team whose best win is against Hartford.
6. Dartmouth (7-6)
Without a single win over a top-300 team (and there are only
350 teams in Division I), the Big Green has earned their wins as a bottom
feeder. They did come within 7 points of #23 Illinois, proving they can at
least play close to some of the top teams. And with Tyler Melville being the
only senior on the roster, look for Dartmouth to make a legitimate title run in
2014-2015, led by Gabas Maldunas and Alex Mitola.
7. Penn (2-10)
Is it fair to penalize the media’s preseason #2 by 5 spots
just for playing the league’s toughest schedule? Yes, when they hardly even
compete with that schedule. Their only two opponents with true merit, #8
Villanova and #20 Iowa, crushed the Quakers. You don’t get bonus points just
for scheduling great opponents if you don’t even make it close. Their only two
wins – Monmouth and Niagra – are nothing to write home about. There was
probably a lot of speculation that the return of Fran Dougherty would be enough
to vault the Quakers to glory, but for now they’re more of an upset special
than a true contender.
8. Cornell (0-13)
Of the 350 Division I teams, the Big Red are in serious
consideration for the ignominious title of worst team in basketball. They are
the only team left in the nation without a single win. Even cellar dwellers
like Grambling, Southern Utah, and Maryland Eastern Shore have scraped together
a single win. Now that Shonn Miller’s shoulder injury might keep him out for
the entire year, there’s no way Nolan Cressler can do it all by himself. I’m
not seeing any light at the end of this tunnel.
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